Market Overview – November 4, 2026
Wednesday's session is driven by two events: the result of the US midterm elections, which weakened the US dollar, and the euro area flash HICP, which showed inflation climbing to 4.0% in October from 3.8% in September, a three-year high. Both factors helped the euro and gold, while Bitcoin is attempting a modest recovery.
Analysis of Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD)
Price: around 1.1235, up about 0.4% on the day, after briefly touching 1.13, its highest level since October.
Fundamental Drivers
- Hotter euro area inflation strengthens the case for an ECB rate hike in December, which supports the euro.
- The dollar slid after the midterm results surprised markets and increased political uncertainty in the US.
- On the other side, expectations of a Fed hike in December are still alive and limit how far the dollar can fall.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 1.1300, then 1.1350
- Support: 1.1200 – 1.1220 (former resistance), then 1.1114
Outlook
As long as the pair holds above 1.1200, the short-term bias is bullish with a retest of 1.1300 in view. A daily close back below 1.1200 would cancel the breakout and return the pair to its late-October range. The next catalysts are US payrolls (NFP) on November 6 and US CPI on November 10.
Technical Setup for Tomorrow (November 5)
- Bullish scenario: if the pair holds 1.1200 – 1.1220 on pullbacks, the next targets are 1.1260 and then 1.1300.
- Bearish scenario: an H1/H4 close below 1.1200 would signal a failed breakout, with targets at 1.1150 and then 1.1114.
- Note: volatility may stay contained before Friday's NFP; a break above 1.1300 before then would be a strong sign of momentum.
Analysis of Gold (XAU/USD)
Price: around 4,030 – 4,040 USD, up roughly 2.5% on the day after trading near 3,920 in the morning. Gold is rebounding from its one-year low near 3,870 set at the end of October.
Fundamental Drivers
- The weaker dollar and post-election uncertainty revived safe-haven demand.
- Physically backed gold ETFs saw record inflows in Q3, a sign of solid long-term demand.
- Hawkish Fed expectations remain the main headwind for a non-yielding asset like gold.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 4,075 – 4,085 (near the 100 EMA), then 4,105 – 4,115
- Support: 3,970 – 3,980, then 3,885 – 3,905
Outlook
Holding above 3,970 keeps the recovery alive toward 4,080 – 4,115. The broader trend since the summer is still bearish, so a rejection at 4,080 could turn this move into a bull trap and send price back toward 3,900. Wait for confirmation above 4,085 before treating this as a trend change.
Technical Setup for Tomorrow (November 5)
- Bullish scenario: holding above 3,970 – 3,980 and a clean break of 4,050 opens the way to 4,080, then 4,110.
- Bearish scenario: a rejection at 4,075 – 4,085 or a break below 3,970 would point to 3,930 and then 3,895.
- Note: after a 2.5% daily jump, a pullback toward 3,990 – 4,000 before any continuation would be normal.
Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Price: around 78,500 USD, up about 2% from yesterday's 77,000. Bitcoin closed October down about 7.3% and is still roughly 38% below its all-time high of about 126,000 from October 2025.
Fundamental Drivers
- A softer dollar is giving risk assets some breathing room.
- Fed tightening expectations and weak ETF flows keep the upside limited.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 80,000 (psychological), then 84,000
- Support: 77,750 (100-day EMA), then 76,450 (200-day EMA) and 75,000
Outlook
The 100-day and 200-day EMAs form a layered support zone between 76,450 and 77,750. While price holds above this zone, a move back toward 80,000 is the main scenario. A daily close below 76,000 would open the way toward 74,000 – 75,000.
Technical Setup for Tomorrow (November 5)
- Bullish scenario: holding above 77,750 and breaking 79,000 opens the way to 80,000; a daily close above 80,000 would target 82,000 – 84,000.
- Bearish scenario: losing 77,750 points to the 200-day EMA at 76,450; a daily close below 76,000 would open 75,000.
- Note: 80,000 is a strong psychological level, so expect selling pressure on the first test.
Summary Table
- EUR/USD: bullish above 1.1200 – target 1.1300
- XAU/USD: recovering above 3,970 – target 4,080; trend still under pressure
- BTC/USD: neutral to bullish above 77,750 – target 80,000
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets are volatile; always use risk management.