Technical Analysis of Gold vs US Dollar (XAU/USD) – 2025-08-09

🔹 Current Market Overview

• Gold recently reached $3409.43, the highest level since late July


• After selling pressure and a stronger dollar, price pulled back to around $3387


• The US Dollar Index (DXY) stands at 98.31, down 0.6% weekly, supporting gold’s upside

📊 Technical Analysis

1. Resistance Levels

Level	Description
$3400	Psychological and technical resistance, aligned with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from July drop
$3438	High from July 23
$3452	High from June 16

2. Support Levels

Level	Description
$3380	Intraday support, intersects short-term ascending trendline
$3353	Pivot point and 50-day moving average
$3350	Key support; breaking it may trigger deeper correction

3. Chart Patterns

• Ending Wedge pattern visible on 4-hour chart, often signals trend reversal


• Negative RSI divergence supports potential correction

🔍 Fundamental Drivers

• Speculation around Jerome Powell’s successor at the Fed has strengthened the dollar


• Weak employment data and controlled inflation raise chances of rate cuts in September


• New US tariffs on imports increase uncertainty, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold

✅ Conclusion & Trade Recommendations

• Gold is trading in a sensitive range between $3350 and $3400


• If price stabilizes above $3409, next targets are $3438 and $3452


• Conversely, breaking below $3350 may push price toward $3320 or even $3300

🔸 Suggested Strategy

• Short-term traders: monitor $3380 and price reaction


• Medium-term outlook: stabilization above $3400 may signal a valid buying opportunity