Market Overview – November 5, 2026
The confirmed result of the US midterms, with Democrats winning both the Senate and the House, kept pressure on the US dollar on Thursday. The dollar index slipped to about 101.25, its lowest level since late September, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.88%. Lower oil prices and signs of US–Iran talks also eased inflation fears. Gold extended its rebound above 4,000, Bitcoin reclaimed 80,000 after a short squeeze, and EUR/USD held near a one-month high. The Bank of England raised its rate by 25 bp to 4.00%. Tomorrow's main event is the US jobs report (NFP).
Analysis of Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD)
Price: around 1.1240, holding most of yesterday's gains after a high near 1.1258 today. The pair has rebounded from the 1.1110 – 1.1120 area, which now looks like a double bottom.
Fundamental Drivers
- Divided US government after the midterms reduces the risk of large fiscal shifts and weighs on the dollar.
- Euro area inflation at 4.0% keeps an ECB hike in December on the table.
- A Fed hike in December is still widely expected, so strong US data can quickly revive the dollar.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 1.1270 (double-bottom neckline), then 1.1310
- Support: 1.1225, then 1.1200 and 1.1175
Outlook
The short-term structure is bullish while the pair stays above 1.1225. A clean break of 1.1270 would confirm the double bottom and open 1.1310, with a larger target near 1.1400 in the coming days. Ahead of NFP, the pair may stay range-bound between 1.1225 and 1.1270.
Technical Setup for Tomorrow (November 6)
- Bullish scenario: a weak NFP and an H1/H4 close above 1.1270 target 1.1310, then 1.1350.
- Bearish scenario: a strong NFP and a close below 1.1225 target 1.1200, then 1.1175.
- Note: avoid opening new positions in the minutes before the NFP release; wait for the first 15-minute candle to close.
Analysis of Gold (XAU/USD)
Price: around 4,080 – 4,090 USD, extending yesterday's rebound and testing the 4,074 – 4,083 resistance zone. Gold has now recovered more than 200 dollars from its one-year low near 3,870.
Fundamental Drivers
- A weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields reduce the cost of holding gold.
- Softer ISM services (54.5) eased fears of aggressive Fed tightening.
- Lower oil and US–Iran talk headlines reduce the safe-haven premium, which limits the upside.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 4,104 – 4,118, then 4,187 – 4,227
- Support: 4,020, then 3,970 – 3,980
Outlook
Momentum is clearly bullish, but the 1-hour RSI is near overbought, so a consolidation or a pullback toward 4,020 – 4,040 before the next leg would be healthy. A daily close above 4,118 would point to 4,190 and beyond. Losing 3,970 would turn this rebound into a failed recovery.
Technical Setup for Tomorrow (November 6)
- Bullish scenario: buying pullbacks to 4,020 – 4,040 while above 4,020; a break of 4,115 targets 4,150, then 4,190.
- Bearish scenario: a strong NFP and a close below 4,020 point to 3,980, then 3,970.
- Note: after two strong days, the risk of profit-taking before the weekend is high.
Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Price: around 80,000 – 80,400 USD, up roughly 2% to 4% in 24 hours. A short squeeze liquidated about 378 million dollars of short positions and pushed price back above 80,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about 75 million dollars of inflows on November 4, ending three days of outflows.
Fundamental Drivers
- The weaker dollar supports risk assets.
- Returning ETF inflows and whale accumulation improve sentiment.
- The move is partly driven by liquidations, so it can fade if spot demand does not follow.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 80,800 – 81,200, then 82,000 – 82,200
- Support: 78,800, then 77,000 and 75,600 (this month's low)
Outlook
Price is back above the 50, 100 and 200-day EMAs, which is a constructive sign. Still, a daily close above 82,000 is needed to confirm a real recovery. Below 78,800, the short squeeze would likely fade back toward 77,000.
Technical Setup for Tomorrow (November 6)
- Bullish scenario: holding above 80,000 and breaking 81,200 targets 82,000 – 82,200.
- Bearish scenario: losing 78,800 points to 77,000; a daily close below 76,700 would cancel the bullish view.
- Note: a pullback buy near 78,800 with a stop below 76,700 offers a better risk/reward than chasing price at 80,000.
Summary Table
- EUR/USD: bullish above 1.1225 – trigger 1.1270, target 1.1310
- XAU/USD: bullish above 4,020 – target 4,115, then 4,190
- BTC/USD: cautiously bullish above 78,800 – target 82,000
- Key event: US Nonfarm Payrolls, Friday November 6
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets are volatile; always use risk management.