Market Overview – November 6, 2026
Friday was all about a blowout US jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, far above the roughly 65,000 expected. Unemployment dipped to 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month (3.1% year on year), and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000. The report revived bets on a Fed rate hike in December, pushed Treasury yields higher and gave the US dollar its strongest day in weeks. Bitcoin had already dropped about 6% on Thursday afternoon during a tech-stock sell-off and spent Friday stabilising near 76,000.
New in today's charts: the shaded area shows the hourly price path of the last 24 hours, with the 24h high, low and percentage change, so you can see how price moved into today's close.
Note: forex and gold markets close for the weekend, so the next technical plan for EUR/USD and gold is for Monday, November 9. Bitcoin trades 24/7, so its plan covers the weekend.
Analysis of Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD)
Price: around 1.1143, down about 0.8% in 24 hours from 1.1231. The pair slid steadily through the Asian and European sessions and lost another leg at the NFP release, breaking below both 1.1225 and 1.1200. This was the bearish scenario from yesterday's plan.
Fundamental Drivers
- Strong payrolls, falling unemployment and firm wages raise the odds of a Fed hike in December, which supports the dollar.
- Risk-off mood after the tech-stock sell-off adds safe-haven demand for the dollar.
- Euro area inflation at 4.0% still keeps an ECB hike on the table, which should limit how far the euro can fall.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 1.1175, then 1.1200 – 1.1225
- Support: 1.1110 – 1.1120 (late-October double bottom), then 1.1060
Outlook
The breakout attempt above 1.1270 has failed and short-term momentum has turned bearish. The 1.1110 – 1.1120 zone is now the key test: holding it keeps the wider range intact, while a daily close below it would open a deeper move toward 1.1060.
Technical Setup for Monday (November 9)
- Bearish scenario (preferred): sell rallies toward 1.1175 while below 1.1200; a break of 1.1110 targets 1.1060.
- Bullish scenario: a rebound from 1.1110 and an H4 close back above 1.1175 would point to 1.1200 – 1.1225.
- Note: watch for a weekend gap at Monday's open; wait for the first H1 candle before entering.
Analysis of Gold (XAU/USD)
Price: around 4,050 USD (spot), down about 0.4% in 24 hours. Gold peaked near 4,073 late Thursday, eased toward 4,022 in Asian trade, and then whipsawed around the NFP release before settling near 4,050. Considering the jump in yields and the dollar, gold held up relatively well.
Fundamental Drivers
- A stronger dollar and higher yields after NFP are the main headwinds.
- Higher odds of a December Fed hike raise the cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
- Dip-buying interest and steady central-bank demand are cushioning the decline.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 4,065 – 4,075, then 4,147
- Support: 4,020 – 4,031, then 3,998 and 3,965
Outlook
Gold is consolidating in a 4,020 – 4,075 range after this week's rally from 3,870. As long as 4,020 holds, the recovery structure is intact. A close above 4,075 would reopen 4,110 – 4,147, while a break below 4,020 would point to 3,998 and then 3,965.
Technical Setup for Monday (November 9)
- Bullish scenario: buy dips near 4,020 – 4,030 while above 4,020; a close above 4,075 targets 4,110, then 4,147.
- Bearish scenario: an H4 close below 4,020 targets 3,998, then 3,965.
- Note: the 24h chart shows sellers capping every bounce near 4,075; a clean break of that level is the signal to watch.
Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Price: around 76,000 USD, roughly flat (+0.5%) over the last 24 hours. The big move came earlier: on Thursday afternoon (around 14:00 – 15:00 UTC) Bitcoin fell from about 80,400 to below 76,000 as a tech and AI stock sell-off pushed the Nasdaq into correction and triggered more than 1 billion dollars of leveraged liquidations. Reports that Trump Media moved about 4,259 BTC to an exchange added to supply fears. Since then price has held a tight 75,400 – 76,200 range.
Fundamental Drivers
- Bitcoin is trading closely with tech stocks; equity weakness is the main risk.
- A stronger dollar and higher yields after NFP are negative for risk assets.
- Possible selling by large holders keeps traders cautious.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 76,000 – 77,000 (short-term holder cost basis), then 78,000
- Support: 75,400 (24h low), then 74,000 and 72,000
Outlook
The tight 24h range after a sharp drop looks like a pause, not yet a reversal. Bulls need to reclaim 77,000 to ease the pressure. Losing 75,400 would likely bring a test of 74,000, and the larger demand zone is near 72,000.
Technical Setup for the Weekend (November 7 – 8)
- Bullish scenario: a 4H close above 77,000 targets 78,000.
- Bearish scenario: a break below 75,400 targets 74,000, then 72,000.
- Note: weekend liquidity is thin, so false breakouts are common; use smaller position sizes and wider stops.
Summary Table
- EUR/USD: bearish below 1.1175 – key support 1.1110, target 1.1060
- XAU/USD: range 4,020 – 4,075 – breakout decides the next move
- BTC/USD: neutral to bearish below 77,000 – key support 75,400
- Next key events: US CPI on November 10
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets are volatile; always use risk management.