Market Overview – November 11, 2026
Markets are still digesting Tuesday's hotter-than-expected US inflation. October CPI rose 0.4% on the month (0.3% expected) and core CPI rose 0.3% (0.2% expected). Fed Governor Waller backed a December hike and said a 50 bp move should be considered, so markets now treat a December Fed hike as almost certain. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 5.0%, and the dollar extended its gains on Wednesday. Gold slipped below 4,000, EUR/USD broke a key support, and Bitcoin is holding just above its 11-week low.
The shaded area on each chart shows the hourly price path of the last 24 hours, with the 24h high, low and percentage change.
Analysis of Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD)
Price: around 1.1099, down about 0.65% in 24 hours from 1.1172. The pair drifted lower through the Asian and European sessions, then dropped sharply around midday UTC to a low of 1.1089, breaking the important 1.1110 zone (late-October double bottom and 50-week SMA).
Fundamental Drivers
- Hot CPI and hawkish Fed comments widen the policy gap in favour of the dollar.
- Treasury yields near 5% attract capital into the dollar.
- ECB speakers remain hawkish, but so far that has not been enough to support the euro.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 1.1140 (broken support), then 1.1200
- Support: 1.1060, then 1.1000
Outlook
The break below 1.1110 shifts the short-term structure clearly to bearish. As long as the pair stays below 1.1140, rallies are likely to be sold. A daily close below 1.1110 would confirm the breakdown and open 1.1060, then 1.1000; some analysts see a wider target near 1.0800 – 1.0900 if the move extends.
Technical Setup for Tomorrow (November 12)
- Bearish scenario (preferred): sell pullbacks toward 1.1120 – 1.1140 while below 1.1140; targets 1.1060, then 1.1000.
- Bullish scenario: an H4 close back above 1.1140 would mean a false break and could lift the pair toward 1.1200.
- Note: UK GDP is out on Thursday morning and US PPI on Friday; a soft PPI could trigger a short-covering bounce.
Analysis of Gold (XAU/USD)
Price: around 3,990 USD, down about 1.3% in 24 hours. After a 2.6% drop on CPI day, gold tried to stabilise near 4,068 in the European morning, but sellers returned in the afternoon and pushed price below 4,000 for the first time since early November. The chart path is based on gold futures.
Fundamental Drivers
- A near-certain December Fed hike and a 10-year yield near 5% raise the cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
- The stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for non-US buyers.
- Oversold short-term indicators and long-term central-bank demand could slow the decline.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 4,025 – 4,036 (broken support), then 4,074 – 4,082
- Support: 3,970 – 3,980, then 3,885 – 3,904
Outlook
Gold is now testing the 3,970 – 3,980 zone. Holding it could bring a technical bounce toward 4,030, but the trend since CPI is clearly bearish. A decisive break below 3,970 would open the way to 3,900 and the late-October low area near 3,885.
Technical Setup for Tomorrow (November 12)
- Bearish scenario: an H4 close below 3,970 targets 3,930, then 3,900.
- Bullish scenario: a bounce from 3,970 – 3,980 and a close above 4,000 targets 4,030; only a close above 4,082 would end the short-term downtrend.
- Note: after two heavy down days, short-term oversold bounces are likely, so avoid chasing shorts near support.
Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Price: around 74,000 USD, up about 0.6% in 24 hours. Bitcoin is holding just above its 11-week low near 73,000 after five red weekly closes. It traded flat for most of the day, bounced to 74,574 in the US session with stocks, and then slipped back to 74,000.
Fundamental Drivers
- A near-certain December Fed hike reduces liquidity support for crypto.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about 1.28 billion dollars of outflows in the first week of November, and outflows continued this week.
- Miner selling (MARA sold about 13,600 BTC over six weeks) adds supply pressure.
- Sentiment is in "fear" (Fear & Greed near 31), which sometimes precedes relief rallies.
Key Levels
- Resistance: 75,000 – 75,400, then 76,500
- Support: 73,000, then 71,500 and 67,000 – 69,000
Outlook
The 24h chart shows a tight range with higher lows in the second half of the day, but buyers have not yet reclaimed 75,000. As long as price holds 73,000, a sideways to slightly bullish bounce is possible. A daily close below 73,000 would likely trigger a new leg down toward 71,500.
Technical Setup for Tomorrow (November 12)
- Bullish scenario: a 4H close above 75,000 targets 75,400, then 76,500.
- Bearish scenario: a daily close below 73,000 targets 71,500.
- Note: long positioning on some exchanges is crowded, so a sharp liquidation wick below 73,000 is possible even if the level later holds.
Summary Table
- EUR/USD: bearish below 1.1140 – targets 1.1060, then 1.1000
- XAU/USD: bearish below 4,030 – key support 3,970, target 3,900
- BTC/USD: neutral above 73,000 – breakout trigger 75,000
- Next key events: UK Q3 GDP (Thursday), US PPI (Friday)
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets are volatile; always use risk management.